Dave’s Blog

If I were a carpenter.

Lockdown in this part of the North of England has for the last couple of days provided me with an insight into how life must have been for that Biblical D.I.Y. expert Noah. Apart from an acknowledged shortage of the necessary livestock the other key element incessant rain has been conspicuous by its presence.

Other than the above there has been a few items of interest which will be played out over the next few weeks and months. The Bryony Frost “bullying” story has attracted the usual suspects, not least the jump racing is cruel brigade, the whole episode has opened a can of worms. It doesn’t look like the weighing room will be able to sort this dispute out in house. Now the mainstream media have scented blood there will be no switching off of any lights being shone on the sport…. a mixture of animal cruelty is racing misogynistic? etc providing plenty of ingredients for a tasty few tabloid angles.

Another bit of dirty linen got an airing with the news from Ireland that trainer Charles Byrnes had been suspended for six months after one of his horses had tested positive for a sedative after being pulled up at Tramore in October 2018. The trainer has appealed so this will go on for a while longer. Once again, the kind of publicity racing can do without.

The loud noise heard at Punchestown last Sunday was the bubble bursting after the big build to the novice chase. The first fence fall…. sounds like Arkwright of Open All Hours…. of the only runner seeming capable of giving Envoi Allen a race, Asterion Forlonge, left the favourite with an easy task. Fils D’oudairies looked dangerous two out but once Jack Kennedy gave Envoi Allen permission the gelding quickened away. Davy Russell will be hoping his injury clears up shortly to get his unbeaten mount back.

Still in Ireland I was surprised to see David Mullins announce his retirement, only 24 Mullins always seemed just a step away from being the next star to emerge from the Irish Jumps scene. He won the 2016 Grand National on Rule the World and did me a big favour when Kemboy won the Savills Chase a couple of years later. A bad fall last season probably didn’t help matters but it looks like Mullins has been trying to get out for some time. Good luck to him in the future.

A couple of interesting meetings coming up on Saturday, Haydock, and Ascot. Haydock survived a Thursday morning inspection but now has another to survive tomorrow to check on the effects of the forecast overnight frost.

Who would be a Clerk of the Course?

Selection – 2:40 – Haydock: Peter Marsh Handicap Chase

The Peter Marsh chase is usually a good event, but I feel this year’s renewal is a little lacking in quality. Top weight Royale Pagaille heads the market, and seems the one unexposed runner, but at the likely odds isn’t really a bet for me. He was impressive last time out at Kempton and is considered classy enough to hold a Gold Cup entry. He could stroll away with the race but carrying 11st 10lbs in heavy ground will be a gruelling test for the seven-year-old. Tom Scudamore gets the mount which might indicate Charlie Deutsch perhaps fancies something more strongly at Ascot. As I said there doesn’t seem to be any other unexposed type in the race, perhaps Sam Brown, so if you are able to bet at north of 5/2, I wouldn’t put you off.

1. Sam Brown

Selection – 3:00 – Ascot: bet365 Handicap Chase

The 2m5f chase at Ascot is also worth a look. Fourteen declared and some decent sorts amongst the entries. Two previous winners in the field Acting Lass (2018) and Domaine de L’Isle (2020). Acting Lass hasn’t shown much since, but last year’s winner might spring a surprise in first time blinkers. His under rated trainer Sean Curran has him back on the same mark of 140 so this could have been a cunning plan. My idea of the winner is Venetia Williams’… Espoir de Guye who is possibly be the reason Charlie …see above …. has stayed down south for the afternoon. This seven year disappointed last time over the track but that was over three miles and previously had been a course and distance winner. The nine-pound rise isn’t excessive so at around 6/1 he looks reasonable value with a saver on Domaine de L’Isle at around 16s if available.

1. Espoir de Guye

2. Domaine de L’Isle

Selection – 3:35 – Ascot: Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase

The Clarence House chase is another corker and for me sentiment would have Waiting Patiently win for Ruth Jefferson. He finished with a rare old rattle in the King George but whether the hold up tactics will be as successful on Saturday is doubtful. I am sure the trainer and jockey know far more than me …not difficult …and they may have another set of tactics lined up, we shall see. I am going to chance a few bob on Kim Bailey’s First Flow who will love the ground and still seems to be improving at nine. He has won six of his last eight races and gone up from 140 to 156. At the advertised 14/1 its worth paying to find out if the improvement continues.

1. First Flow

Right back to the joinery.

Enjoy the weekend.

Dave

Again, good luck throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at the syndicate’s available shares.

Poor fare last weekend with the selections. A third and a second, at least at each way prices, and a misplaced faith in Kevin Brogans ability to raise Drumconnor Lads game to the required level needed at Ascot was the best we could muster. Newtide ran a fine race under top weight giving over a stone to the two who finished in front of him in a race which might prove to have been a good trial for the Welsh Grand National. Fortified Bay plugged on gamely in the long-distance chase to gain a deserved second place at 18/1 admittedly the winner was back home watching Strictly when the selection finished. However only three of the eleven starters managed to complete so it was a worthy effort as our lad’s jumping hadn’t been too good all the way round which must have been a drain on his reserves of stamina.

Betfair Chase Review

I don’t think we learned a lot from the Betfair Chase other than Bristol de Mai appreciated every drop of rain that fell before and during the race. I thought Clan des Obeaux was coming to win in the straight, but the grey quickened again, and the Nicholls horse just couldn’t get by him. Lostintranslation never looked happy on the ground so perhaps its best to forgive him that run. Bristol de Mai’s long-term target would appear to be the Grand National and he should be on any short list for next year’s renewal. My fancy at this early stage is J P McManus’ Any Second Now trained by Ted Walsh. He’s got some good chase form in the book, but connections seem to be keeping him over hurdles for the time being. He ran an ok race at Naas the other day, so it looks like they are trying to preserve his handicap mark for something… who knows?

Not so far off is Boxing Day and it will be interesting to see how the Haydock race form pans out in the King George , the Tizzard horse didn’t have as hard a time as Clan des Obeaux but the Kempton track suits the latter. Throw Cyrname into the mix and its already looking a race to anticipate.

Ladbroke Trophy / Hennessey / Cognac Gold Cup

Talking of suchlike Saturday sees the latest renewal of the Ladbroke Trophy… a title which doesn’t seem to carry as much cachet, as En Meme Temps would say, as its former title the Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup. But maybe it’s an age thing. This is always a great race whoever the sponsor and has been won by some terrific chasers in recent years Native River, Many Clouds, Bobsworth, Denman …that’s three Gold Cup Winners and a Grand National winner for starters. Further back One Man trotted up bringing Tony Dobbin to everyone’s attention. I was there in 1984 when Burrough Hill Lad stormed away carrying top weight and ridden by John Francome. The horse was out on his hooves after the race, but it was some performance. A year later I backed Jimmy Fitzgerald’s Galway Blaze when he won… no it wasn’t my last winner… and it was a great feeling to see Mark Dwyer sitting with a double handful as far out as the cross fence… happy days.

I could rabbit on for hours about previous winners but here are just a few others to jog the memory… Bregawn, Diamond Edge, Spanish Steps, Mill House and of course the mighty Arkle. I know I will have omitted someone’s personal favourite so apologies but space dictates. It’s worth half an hour on Wikipedia just going through the results to banish lockdown boredom for a while.

Selections – 3:00 Newbury: Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

This isn’t a race the North tends to win very often but we have a cracking chance this year with Harriet Graham’s Aye Right .This seven year old has some top novice form from last year and started this season with an excellent third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. This horse is the star of the Graham yard up in the Scottish Borders and it would be a result beyond their wildest dreams if Aye Right comes home in front. Unfortunately, the trainer will be unable to attend at the weekend as she had the misfortune to be run over by her own horsebox the other week which cant have been an enjoyable experience lets hope the horse does them proud.

Aye Right

It is possible to make a case for at least half a dozen of the field Henderson Nicholls Twiston Davies et al all have fancied runners but the other who catches my eye is Copperhead of the Tizzard’s. He was my selection in the RSA in March when he fell at the last, but he was beaten at the time. Those in the know reckon the Tizzard horses were not firing for Cheltenham so I am prepared to give this strapping chestnut another chance. He has already a win over course and distance under his belt and Robbie Power takes the mount.

Copperhead

Let’s hope one of these two make it back before Match of the Day.

Talking of footy are there any other Spurs fans out there beginning to dream.

Asking for a friend.

All the best,

Dave

Again, good luck throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at the syndicate’s available shares.

Before we have a look at the weekend action it crossed my mind this week… not a long trip I agree…. that it always pays to have an edge when looking for value in betting.

A couple of years ago I was banging on in this blog to the two regular readers about James Bowen and Bryony Frost when they were both making a name for themselves. They both rode some good winners during that time and have since gone on to become established as household names to followers of the jumping game.

This time round I think it could pay to follow two young conditionals both attached to Jonjo O’Neill’s yard at Jackdaw’s Castle in the Cotswolds. The two lads are from quite different backgrounds one Kevin Brogan has recently joined the yard having been with Gordon Elliot and the other Phillip Armson made his name on the Midlands point to point circuit. Both have been among the winners of late and I am certain Jonjo will make sure their claims are put to good use as the season hots up. Whatever rides they take for outside stables must also be closely looked at as conditionals employers do not usually like their jockeys losing their valuable weight advantage on someone else’s charge, without good reason… if you follow my drift.

That is my thought for the week anyhow… might be total rubbish but it will be fun to see how it pans out. Just try and forget where you read it first.

En Meme Temps

It will be fascinating to see how one of the Hope Eden hurdlers gets on tomorrow. En Meme Temps has yet to run a bad race for his owners and at the same time… (did you spot the French joke mes amis), he has shown promise that he can win a race off this handicap mark. Hopefully, Phil Kirby can find a way to unlock the gelding’s undoubted potential. If he does, this lad (the horse not Phil) can take his owners for some big days out. From my side, I don’t quite have a betting opinion on the race as it is a hurdle race but looking at En Meme Temps form to date he must have good chance… Ross Chapman rides. Good luck to all concerned.

The Betfair Chase

The big race this weekend sees an excellent renewal of the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looking back at previous winners thirteen of the fifteen have been trained by either Paul Nicholls Colin Tizzard or Nigel… what happened to Al Dancer… Twiston Davies. It also looks extremely likely that one of them will train this year’s winner as they have the three clear fancied horses in Clan des Obeaux, Lostintranslation and Bristol de Mai. There are two other declarations but neither are within a stone of the top three on ratings so I feel we should discount Bellshill and Keeper Hill… it would be one “hill” of a shock… sorry… if either were to win.

Clan des Obeaux I think will have been trained for this race before a crack at a third King George. I think he surprised his trainer when running fourth in the 2018 running of this race and Nicholls will have him spot on this time round. There is sufficient time before Boxing Day to have him cherry ripe for a hat trick bid.

Lostintranslation was very impressive when winning the race last season but after disappointing in the King George he had a wind op prior to running third in the Gold Cup when his trainer’s horses were not running up to form. Still only eight with not a lot of miles on the clock his Gold Cup run was a good effort.

Bristol de Mai has a cracking record round Haydock four wins and a second from five runs. He has won on good ground but if the going were to turn heavy at the weekend that would be in this lad’s favour.

I watched the race again the other evening and it was an eyeopener how well Lostintranslation was going at the third last he only gave way on the run to the post which in my opinion makes him a worthy favourite on Saturday. However all three of the above are first time out and very close on ratings so I think it’s a race to watch and not bet in but if Clan des Obeaux were 5/2 or greater come race time I would be tempted to back the Nicholls runner as I think this track will place less emphasis on his stamina.

As you may have noticed I don’t have much interest in hurdle races as I prefer to see the horses really jumping at speed rather than just flicking through the top bar of the obstacle… I agree it is good to watch top class hurdlers but it’s not for me. If they are your preference as the guy on the Fast Show says, “I’ll get my coat”.

Selection- 12:40 Haydock: Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Handicap Chase

There are some good rather than top class handicap chases this weekend but it’s hard to see a standout selection. Haydock has two worth a second look, the first a class 2 event over 3m 1f110yds and the other a class 3 over 3m4f110yds. The shorter race looks more interesting and I like the look of the top weight Newtide trained by Kim Bailey who has his horses in good form. The seven-year-old is two from three over fences and won first time up last season which means he should be ok fitness wise on Saturday. Its an open race so I wouldn’t be taking too short a price.

Newtide

Selection- 3:35 Haydock: My Odds Boost On Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Chase

The long-distance chase doesn’t look too appealing punting wise, however Fortified Bay did me a good turn last season, when winning at Newcastle beating Hill Sixteen in the process giving him 4lbs. The shrewdies amongst you will have noticed the latter came out this week and strolled home at Ffos Las on his first start for Nigel T-D, looking money well spent at the Trevor Hemmings dispersal sale. Fortified Bay didn’t run too badly at Carlisle first time up so I think I will have some of last years winnings on him to go in.

Fortified Bay

Selection- 3:35 Ascot: Coral Hurst Park Handicap Chase

There are some good rather than top class handicap chases this weekend but it’s hard to see a standout selection. Haydock has two worth a second look, the first a class 2 event over 3m 1f110yds and the other a class 3 over 3m4f110yds. The shorter race looks more interesting and I like the look of the top weight Newtide trained by Kim Bailey who has his horses in good form. The seven-year-old is two from three over fences and won first time up last season which means he should be ok fitness wise on Saturday. Its an open race so I wouldn’t be taking too short a price.

Drumconnor Lad

The class 2 chase at Ascot is also of interest ,it is over 2m1f so will be a greater speed test than the Haydock events, a trip where any errors are hard to recover from so a good jumper is essential. No jokes about Christmas presents please. To follow up on my earlier comments I am going to follow Kevin Brogan who is jocked up on Drumconnor Lad. The ten-year-old has won already this season so should be fit and he was ridden by Brogan in that race. He will be a reasonable price as he is in with the big boys on Saturday …. but he who dares wins Rodney!

All the best,

Dave

Good luck throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at the syndicate’s available shares.

Another Cheltenham Open Meeting has come and gone…

It was difficult to see any major pointers towards the Festival in March but no doubt the layers have shortened up anything that ran well…

Friday was interesting…

Before the Cross-Country chase, all the talk was of a re-match between Tiger Roll and the French horse Easysland… after the race, the talk was entirely different. Both horses had not run up to expectations Tiger Roll who seemed edgy in the paddock and lifeless in the race has left his supporters wondering if there is one more Tiger Roll of the dice left in his illustrious career or does retirement beckon? Gordon Elliot seemed to me to be preparing the way for drawing stumps but no doubt he will chat to the Gigginstown lads before any decision is made. O’Leary has been quoted as saying “Tiger Roll will be retired when Tiger Roll tells us he wants to retire”.

Whatever happens the horse has done them proud. The French horse also disappointed, connections blaming a combination of ground and weight. I am sure we will see a different Easysland come March when the race is at level weights and not a handicap.

Talking of the Cheltenham cross country course… talking to a French trainer some years ago, just after the course had opened I asked him what he thought of the fences… his shoulders went up in a classic Gallic shrug, his nose and eyebrows likewise followed by a loud “pffft…too small” …mind you having seen some of the courses in France I could see his point. In Cheltenham’s defence the course does look a lot stiffer these days.

Friday gone seen one of Hope Eden’s trainers Phil Kirby introduced a nice novice chaser at Newcastle. Admittedly it was only in a class 5 but for this grade Epsom des Mottes jumped well out in front and came home clear of his field. I think he would have won even more easily if all the fences had had to be jumped but two were omitted because of the low sun. If the handicapper is not too harsh, I am sure this son of Maresco Sorrento will be able to follow up.

Selection Recap: Al Dancer – Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Saturday was almost pay day but Al Dancer, although being backed into favouritism, just could not do us a big favour. Having watched the race back a couple of times I felt he did not jump too fluently on the first circuit but really started to motor when the pace picked up going away from the stands. Coming to three out I thought it was just a matter of Sam T-D releasing the handbrake, but the leader seemed to quicken again whilst our lad started to run on empty. Much to his credit he stuck on valiantly for third, but he seemed to have a hard race let us hope it has not left its mark on his future performances as there would seem to be a good race in him.

I felt for Gumball and his supporters as well at the weekend, given a really attacking ride from the front by Richard Johnson he was still tanking when horse and rider had a Cummings /Boris moment at the second last and parted company. Whether he would have held on up the final hill is an unknown but if he is none the worse for the fall, he can gain compensation.

Sunday’s card was rather spoilt by the ground altering which led to lots of non-runners, leading to some weaker contests not least the Shloer Chase where last years winner Defi du Seuil ran no sort of race leaving this year’s Arkle winner Put the Kettle On to overhaul the 2019 Arkle victor Duc des Genievres on the run to the line. Obviously, the mares allowance came in handy, but the winner is now three from three at the course so must be respected if showing up in March for the Champion Chase.

Away from Cheltenham on Sunday there was a performance to note at Fontwell in the Southern National over a stamina sapping 3m 3f and 110 yards. Held up at the back by Charlie Deutsch Cloudy Glen sauntered away over the final two fences to win easily. He won this off 134 so assuming he goes up say 6lbs to 140 or thereabouts Venetia Williams might have something in mind like the Welsh Grand National providing he gets in off this low handicap mark. Last years winner Potters Corner was rated 145 and ran off 10st 5lbs so it will be touch and go.

Eyes peeled…

Will be in touch,

Dave

Good luck as always throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at Hope Eden’s available shares.

Here I Go Again… (apologies to The Hollies)

Before I kick on, the Hollies were a pop group of a certain vintage, not close relatives of Hollie Doyle…

So, it’s been a while since I wrote for Hope Eden – a couple of years gap between sentences making me feel a bit like an unlucky criminal to be honest, but what Hope Eden want Hope Eden gets… so its back in the saddle for yours truly… and a few more weeks hard labour carrying the welter burden of trying to find something interesting to waffle on about.

For jumps lovers, this is the time the action really cranks up with a cracking race or two each weekend. What a pity paying spectators are not allowed in to appreciate at first hand the raw spectacle that is top class National Hunt racing. The telly coverage is good… but it is a bit like looking through a restaurant window and watching somebody polish off a gourmet meal. It’s just not the same is it? Go on admit it!

What is better than being paddock side when these top-class animals are ready for action… its only then you realise what athletes they are when fully revved up and ready to race. I used to like nothing better in pre health and safety days than going down to the final open ditch at Carlisle and watching close up as the runners winged the fence at full speed before battling up the final hill and the Blackwell regulars would only be travelling at two thirds the speed the good horses at Cheltenham will be doing at the weekend.

However enough of trying to be the next Alistair Down – no one comes close. So, onto Cheltenham for the Paddy Power. Racegoers of a certain vintage/pensioner… like myself, still refer to the race as the Mackeson, mind you it has had a few names in recent years. It’s usually won by a potential top class animal and names such as Dunkirk, Gay Trip, Man Alive, Bachelors Hall, Bright Highway, Fifty Dollars More, Half Free and Pegwell Bay are just some that spring to mind. Incidentally Bachelors Hall and Bright Highway both went on a couple of weeks later to win the Hennessey Gold Cup… (the Ladbroke Trophy to any junior readers) a feat you never seem to see attempted these days.

I once had the nerve to write to Neville Crump the famous Middleham trainer and ask if his novice Cancello was going to be entered for the race as I thought it had a great chance. He had the decency to reply or at least a minion did on his behalf and confirmed that was the plan. Cancello won… happy days. For some reason the race was run at Haydock that year.

Ok nurse I won’t be a moment…

I haven’t had the brass neck to email any trainer this time round but here are a few thoughts on this weekend’s big race.

Selection- 2:15 Saturday – Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Statistics seem to be in vogue these days especially with any random scientists the PM stands in between at the Government press briefings so a look at the details behind the winners of the Mackeson/Paddy Power shouldn’t be wasted time and effort.

Most winners have come in the age range 5 to 8 years old trained by a top Southern trainer with Northern and Irish handlers hardly getting in a look in. It also pays to look for a horse that has run well at the track in a decent race and might be heading for the better races as time passes. Like most statistics the pandemic included they are as boring as hell after a while so perhaps we will stop there… paralysis by analysis sums it all up. So, a young horse who likes the track should suffice.

Three that fit the profile are ‘Simply The Betts’ of Harry Whittington’s, (I see Gavin Sheehan has been passed to ride after his broken wrist), ‘Al Dancer’ of Nigel Twiston-Davies and ‘Saint Sonnet’ Paul Nicholls. They are all at the front of the market so the prices will not be mind-blowing but there we are.

From behind my Hope Eden face mask, I like the outsider of the trio Nigel’s ‘Al Dancer’. This son of Al Namix was campaigned mostly over two miles last season but opened this season with a win over 2m5f at Newton Abbot and he has always looked to me like he would appreciate a longer trip. I guess, we’ll will find out at the weekend.

Al Dancer

Available at around 8/1 or 9/1 at the time of writing, I believe he is certainly worth a punt.

P.S On a completely different topic, if Christmas ever happens this year…anyone sick of socks or naff perfume… perhaps a mention to the nearest and dearest that you would be pleased to receive a copy of Barry Geraghty’s autobiography would be a good idea. An excellent read that will fill the time in waiting for the Boxing Day racing to start quite nicely.

Will be in touch with next weeks blog.

Good luck throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at the syndicate’s available shares.