Before we have a look at the weekend action it crossed my mind this week… not a long trip I agree…. that it always pays to have an edge when looking for value in betting.
A couple of years ago I was banging on in this blog to the two regular readers about James Bowen and Bryony Frost when they were both making a name for themselves. They both rode some good winners during that time and have since gone on to become established as household names to followers of the jumping game.
This time round I think it could pay to follow two young conditionals both attached to Jonjo O’Neill’s yard at Jackdaw’s Castle in the Cotswolds. The two lads are from quite different backgrounds one Kevin Brogan has recently joined the yard having been with Gordon Elliot and the other Phillip Armson made his name on the Midlands point to point circuit. Both have been among the winners of late and I am certain Jonjo will make sure their claims are put to good use as the season hots up. Whatever rides they take for outside stables must also be closely looked at as conditionals employers do not usually like their jockeys losing their valuable weight advantage on someone else’s charge, without good reason… if you follow my drift.
That is my thought for the week anyhow… might be total rubbish but it will be fun to see how it pans out. Just try and forget where you read it first.
En Meme Temps
It will be fascinating to see how one of the Hope Eden hurdlers gets on tomorrow. En Meme Temps has yet to run a bad race for his owners and at the same time… (did you spot the French joke mes amis), he has shown promise that he can win a race off this handicap mark. Hopefully, Phil Kirby can find a way to unlock the gelding’s undoubted potential. If he does, this lad (the horse not Phil) can take his owners for some big days out. From my side, I don’t quite have a betting opinion on the race as it is a hurdle race but looking at En Meme Temps form to date he must have good chance… Ross Chapman rides. Good luck to all concerned.
The Betfair Chase
The big race this weekend sees an excellent renewal of the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looking back at previous winners thirteen of the fifteen have been trained by either Paul Nicholls Colin Tizzard or Nigel… what happened to Al Dancer… Twiston Davies. It also looks extremely likely that one of them will train this year’s winner as they have the three clear fancied horses in Clan des Obeaux, Lostintranslation and Bristol de Mai. There are two other declarations but neither are within a stone of the top three on ratings so I feel we should discount Bellshill and Keeper Hill… it would be one “hill” of a shock… sorry… if either were to win.
Clan des Obeaux I think will have been trained for this race before a crack at a third King George. I think he surprised his trainer when running fourth in the 2018 running of this race and Nicholls will have him spot on this time round. There is sufficient time before Boxing Day to have him cherry ripe for a hat trick bid.
Lostintranslation was very impressive when winning the race last season but after disappointing in the King George he had a wind op prior to running third in the Gold Cup when his trainer’s horses were not running up to form. Still only eight with not a lot of miles on the clock his Gold Cup run was a good effort.
Bristol de Mai has a cracking record round Haydock four wins and a second from five runs. He has won on good ground but if the going were to turn heavy at the weekend that would be in this lad’s favour.
I watched the race again the other evening and it was an eyeopener how well Lostintranslation was going at the third last he only gave way on the run to the post which in my opinion makes him a worthy favourite on Saturday. However all three of the above are first time out and very close on ratings so I think it’s a race to watch and not bet in but if Clan des Obeaux were 5/2 or greater come race time I would be tempted to back the Nicholls runner as I think this track will place less emphasis on his stamina.
As you may have noticed I don’t have much interest in hurdle races as I prefer to see the horses really jumping at speed rather than just flicking through the top bar of the obstacle… I agree it is good to watch top class hurdlers but it’s not for me. If they are your preference as the guy on the Fast Show says, “I’ll get my coat”.
Selection- 12:40 Haydock: Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Handicap Chase
There are some good rather than top class handicap chases this weekend but it’s hard to see a standout selection. Haydock has two worth a second look, the first a class 2 event over 3m 1f110yds and the other a class 3 over 3m4f110yds. The shorter race looks more interesting and I like the look of the top weight Newtide trained by Kim Bailey who has his horses in good form. The seven-year-old is two from three over fences and won first time up last season which means he should be ok fitness wise on Saturday. Its an open race so I wouldn’t be taking too short a price.
Newtide
Selection- 3:35 Haydock: My Odds Boost On Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Chase
The long-distance chase doesn’t look too appealing punting wise, however Fortified Bay did me a good turn last season, when winning at Newcastle beating Hill Sixteen in the process giving him 4lbs. The shrewdies amongst you will have noticed the latter came out this week and strolled home at Ffos Las on his first start for Nigel T-D, looking money well spent at the Trevor Hemmings dispersal sale. Fortified Bay didn’t run too badly at Carlisle first time up so I think I will have some of last years winnings on him to go in.
Fortified Bay
Selection- 3:35 Ascot: Coral Hurst Park Handicap Chase
There are some good rather than top class handicap chases this weekend but it’s hard to see a standout selection. Haydock has two worth a second look, the first a class 2 event over 3m 1f110yds and the other a class 3 over 3m4f110yds. The shorter race looks more interesting and I like the look of the top weight Newtide trained by Kim Bailey who has his horses in good form. The seven-year-old is two from three over fences and won first time up last season which means he should be ok fitness wise on Saturday. Its an open race so I wouldn’t be taking too short a price.
Drumconnor Lad
The class 2 chase at Ascot is also of interest ,it is over 2m1f so will be a greater speed test than the Haydock events, a trip where any errors are hard to recover from so a good jumper is essential. No jokes about Christmas presents please. To follow up on my earlier comments I am going to follow Kevin Brogan who is jocked up on Drumconnor Lad. The ten-year-old has won already this season so should be fit and he was ridden by Brogan in that race. He will be a reasonable price as he is in with the big boys on Saturday …. but he who dares wins Rodney!
All the best,
Dave
Good luck throughout the winter. If you’re interested in racehorse ownership, take a look at the syndicate’s available shares.